Strategic Thinking Under Chaotic Conditions: the “General’s Glance” Beyond Analysis and Intuition

Napoleon at Wagram by Horace Vernet

As I finished writing this post, McKinsey & Co. republished a classic interview on the role of intuition in corporate decision making. It was surprising to see a bastion of linear analytical thinking interested in such an elusive topic. Also amusing was to see the guest interviewees, a psychologist and an economist, disagreeing on almost every aspect of intuition (McKinsey). But why is intuition any relevant to strategic thinking?

Bad decisions are not something military, emergency and business leaders can often make. Yet, given the pressures and uncertainties in which they operate, experienced professionals show a remarkable success rate. In trying to identify the causes of success under chaos, new research in neuroscience and battlefield performance are discovering mental processes that defy conventional training models prevalent in business and war schools.

In the conventional model, analysis and intuition are seen as mutually exclusive yet complementary capabilities, as each is activated in different phases of the project cycle. First, based on long-term goals, you define hypotheses sustaining alternative scenarios, and based on comparative estimates, you select the optimal course of action. Only then intuition may apply: a gut check that prompts you to creatively adapt midair when things don’t “feel” right. Strategy is analytical, execution is intuitive. This approach works well in organizational contexts in which you need to justify your decisions against clear objectives; or in situations where political conflict arises over distinct choices.

However, new psychological studies suggest that expert decision making in chaotic situations actually follows a different template. Experienced professionals seem to combine analysis and intuition from the outset, and, although spiking in different phases, analysis and intuition are always informing and influencing each other throughout the problem solving process (Klein, Gordon, Duggan). In dramatic situations, this is manifested as the piercing insight that comes from observing terrain hotspots and pitfalls: the officer who turns a losing battle, the firefighter who escapes the burning inferno, the nurse who saves lives in overwhelming conditions, the entrepreneur who rapidly pivots the startup from certain market failure.

This ability has been a longtime interest in the military. War situations explicitly reveal this “battlefield intuition”, as the uncanny ability to make right decisions under highly adverse circumstances. One of the most successful generals in history, Napoleon Bonaparte was remarkable in this trait (Ridgley). As he describes his experience of winning battles:

The issue of a battle is the result of an instant, of a thought. There is the advance, with its various combinations… The battle is joined, the struggle goes on for a certain time… Then, the decisive moment presents itself, a spark of genius discloses it, and the smallest body of reserves accomplish victory!

His exceptional ability was carefully examined by his nemesis, Prussian strategist and general Carl Von Clausewitz. Just like business planning and execution often fail, he noted that massive army resources, extensive planning, and technical excellence were not enough to secure victory. “Friction” is the result of uncertainty, chance and probability upsetting expected outcomes. But Napoleon regularly beat the odds. Clausewitz termed this coup d’oeil, the insightful glance, or the general’s glance. It is the flash of insight as a sudden ability to see what needs to be done despite uncertainties all around. It results from a sharp focus on means and ends of action, drawing from the individual’s knowledge, experience and observation immediately.

Neuroscience tries to explain this uncanny ability as a type of intelligent memory (Gordon, Klein). From interviews with experts from various occupations, this intuition is neither based on gut instinct (ordinary intuition) nor on muscle memory (expert intuition), nor on any extra-sensory power (Time, Young). Decision makers were making rapid connections between a critical situation in which they were caught in, and their prior experience stored in their deepest memories (not only one's own personal memories but also the learnings we absorb from other many experts).

The selective recombination of past references into future projections is a key trait of such “strategic intuition” (Duggan). Usually faster than pure analysis, strategic intuition works well in unfamiliar situations and amid competing courses of action. As newly predicted outcomes may not fit previous goals, the decision maker must follow through, and work out the details along the way. The combination of analysis and intuition becomes a work of creative insight, as the ability to recombine pieces of information leads to greater understanding and enables new behaviors and responses.

In seeking to develop the “insightful glance” or “strategic intuition”, we must refrain from seeing strategy as purely analytical. We must recognize that intuition plays a role in strategic thinking from the outset. This realization may help analysts to more adeptly anticipate reactions to unforeseen conditions, thus honing a state of readiness and potential initiative. This requires that advisers be more supple in incorporating this pragmatic mindset into their occupational ethos.

In sum, skilled decision makers do not generate multiple options, nor do they develop plans from scratch. Instead, they work from the perception of a specific goal being reachable. They use accumulated expertise to read situations, create possible solutions, and timely act. As they study the situation in search of patterns, problem and solution are visualized at the same time. In the general’s glance, analysis and intuition happen simultaneously, and likewise so do problem and solution.


References

Clausewitz, Carl von. 1832. On War.

Duggan, William. 2005. Coup D'Oeil: Strategic Intuition in Army Planning

Gordon, Barry. 2003. Intelligent Memory

Klein, Gary. 1998. Source of Power: How People Make Decisions

Klein, Gary. 2009. Streetlights and Shadows: Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making

McKinsey & Company. 2010. Strategic Decisions: When can you trust your gut?

Napoleon, Bonaparte. 1916. In His Own Words

Ridgley, Stanley 2012. Strategic Thinking Skills

Time. 2017. U.S. Military Believes Humans Have a Sixth Sense Intuition

Young, Leon (Australian Army). Battlefield Intuition: It’s not a mystery

What I Learned at Stanford: 3 Unexpected Lessons about Silicon Valley

Stanford University campus, 2018

Studying at Stanford business school (GSB) over 2017-2018 was a transformative experience. In our cohort, we honed our vision and skills in strategy, innovation and leadership with world-class MBA faculty. Because this was an executive program, we had to apply coursework lessons in the workplace, turned into a lab sometimes uncomfortably so. In true Californian spirit, we were encouraged to question our assumptions about career, business and culture in quite challenging ways. Given my background as an anthropologist, I embraced this experiential approach. In the process, I draw a few insights from unexpected situations during my brief yet immersive time at Silicon Valley.

1. Tech giants don't look so giant

I couldn't help but notice how ordinary and flawed daily life in major tech companies of Silicon Valley can be. I'm not referring to current controversies around big data, surveillance or diversity, but to the fact that, even in the most coveted of cutting-edge spaces, PowerPoint still failed, doors creaked, and people said unremarkable things. When looked at more closely, tech giants didn't look as giant anymore. Underneath their massive scale, they felt somewhat fragile. As Gladwell noted in his David-and-Goliath study, nimble underdogs often overcome dreaded juggernauts. Something to think about.

2. Exciting careers are often random

As I interacted with well-positioned professionals in venture capital, they told me about how they had stumbled more or less haphazardly into their positions. Rather than careful career planning and powerful connections, they had found out about available jobs they then applied for. Of course, they leveraged network connections and superior education, but did not seem to be benefiting from rampant class privilege. Instead, they were dedicated individuals who seized on some interesting opportunity they more or less enjoy. Career vision and assertiveness are needed for professional growth, but much of what you see about charismatic tech evangelists on the news is just plain PR.

 3. Tremendous goodwill to improve the world

Students in elite tech hubs are often depicted as selfish or naive individuals inadvertently engendering Black Mirror scenarios. However, my experience at Stanford was different. I was impressed with the willingness of students, employees and professionals to do good for society at large. They spent time and effort developing pro-bono solutions to social problems (poverty, health, environment, loneliness, etc.). There are structural limits to individual altruism, but as Mark Twain suggested: “they did not know it was impossible, so they did it.” The excitement and optimism I saw at Stanford was remarkable, even contagious.


Empowerment through Realism and Imagination

Underlying these various experiences at the mecca of tech is a lesson of human empowerment. It goes along the excellent business training I got at Stanford, to realize that snafus and accidents happen to exceptional companies and individuals as they go about their projects. We all put our pants on the same way, regardless of where you are. Most of us underestimate our potential to produce meaningful action. Even as agency is probably easier from a position of privilege, it is heartwarming to see that generous goodwill still flourishes in places where personal gain may easily lie elsewhere. Disruption wouldn't be disruptive if it were easily predictable. That's how established giants get blindsided and fall.

The New Global Raver

Global Raver is expanding. While this blog has always discussed broader cultural, social and media issues, it has been within the purview of electronic dance music. In fact, Global Raver has ranked among the top 10 most relevant EDMC blogs globally. But given this drive for variety, I decided to expand this conversation. In this new orientation, I want to be free to discuss other expressions of cultural innovation in contemporary society.

When I set out to research rave, club and spiritual cultures years ago, my main concern wasn't the music per se. I'm not a musicologist, but a social scientist and a sort of nomadologist. I wanted to understand cultural resistance via disruptive creativity. In international hotspots, such as Ibiza, Goa and Rio, I examined the interactions between media, counterculture and spirituality. My hypothesis was that electronica (aka EDMC) was a space for authentic emancipation. From the outset I confronted the vexing complexity of EDMC, its encroachment by capital, and its docilization by the mainstream.

Yet, such complexities and innovations happen all around us, in various spheres of life. It thus makes sense to move beyond the specific focus on EDMC, to also include the world of contemporary lifestyles, global hybridizations, and digital parodies.

The new Global Raver will be open to a mix of cool hunting, anthropology and social critique. I'd like to follow Deleuze's pragmatic advice for an additive approach to reality. The blog will potentially address any interesting innovations in contemporary global culture: gradual or disruptive, artistic or not, pertaining creative industries and emerging subcultures. Global Raver thus expands while remaining on the cultural cutting edge.

New York Times 2012 Pop Music Retrospective: The More it Changes the More...

Happy 2013. I just read the end-of-year 2012 pop music retrospective roundtable at the New York Times, featuring new findings and some old thinking.

American pop music, the NYT critics have found, is more and more affected by the Internet and electronic music. Social media, viral videos and music sharing have stunned the industry with some quite unknown artists, embarrassing underperforming stars backed by multimillion marketing strategies.

As another weird trend, American mainstream electronic music in 2012 has strangely departed with the multicultural core of its youth (45% of American millennials are Latino, Black or Asian). Whereas the will of minorities was loudly felt in Obama's recent victory, the nation's electronica has taken a sharp turn towards White European beats, as NYT pundits have noted. Why? I suspect that, in particular, psy trance (the "whitest of electronic genres", according to Simon Reynolds and several others) has been honing and bubbling for a while, so it's no surprise that its effects are being now felt. More deeply however, Hebdige and Kerouac have argued, already back in the 1960s, that White music is in direct dialogue with Black culture, and in large part reflects and reacts to transformations in African-British and African-American cultures (a relevant topic to be resumed another time).

I couldn't help but feel vindicated and also disappointed with the NYT pop music retrospective. I'm glad to see some prominent pop culture pundits catching up with some of the thoughts we've been sharing here for a while now. But also disappointed that their discussion merely rehashed some well-known assumptions about how electronic music evolves and permeates the mainstream, not to mention some awkward references to post-modernism (Baudrillard, simulacra, pastiche) as in a 1980s college classroom. Check the NYT article. After all is said and done, the more it changes the more it stays the same... In any case, enjoy a happy 2013.

Is Advertising Killing Dubstep?

Ad industry publication Adweek posted a video gallery of TV commercials  featuring dubstep as background music. Though a capitalist news outlet, the  magazine regrets the co-option of underground music by big brands, while complaining about its formulaic use in mainstream media. The Adweek article is suggestively titled "10 Ads that Killed Dubstep".

Given the variety of EDM genres, why dubstep, one can ask. Maybe sounding a bit tautological, dubstep has gained popularity in recent years by being absorbed in pop music while keeping an urban edgy hip-hop vibe. (British creators have complained that Americans have deformed dubstep with aggressive unsynch overtones, pejoratively called "brostep"). Whether in milder or edgier forms, dubstep currently is one of the most popular EDM genres among the global youth generation, termed Millennials in marketing parlance: anyone born between late 1970s and early 2000s.

Indeed, dubstep is played in commercials promoting products for this youth segment: cereals, alcohol, candies, electronics, and video games. Though people of various ages consume these products, big brands must define a “target audience” working as the core demographic segment to be courted by marketing strategies.

Check the ads featured at Adweek to assess how congruent (or dissonant) dubstep is currently used by big brands in their messages to connect with Millennials. Is advertising killing dubstep, or, maybe, the excessive play of dubstep will eventually turn off Milleanials as "uncool"?  Feel free to leave your comment.

"How Rave Music Conquered America". Really?

An article written by Simon Reynolds is a serious thing. The most respected and influential dance music journalist has just published his fatwa "How rave music conquered America" in The Guardian (August 02, 2012). His analysis is not essentially different than the majority of press articles on the recent growth of EDM in America. Likewise, he employs analytical categories he forged in the late 1980s, elaborating on aspects of the cyclical trajectory that electronica traces from underground, to popularization and massification, as multiplication leads to fragmentation. What's special about his article is the descriptive (albeit sometimes verbose) depth and the authoritative weight he brings to the table.

The rise of mega festivals with super structures and inflated fees is, according to Reynolds, the main indication that EDM has become mainstream in America. I am surprised, because this is the type of evidence that outside journalists and some naive insiders have been using for over 10 years now. But maybe this time it is different. Really?

The voracious encroachment of entertainment big business in the U.S. rave scene is a relatively new trend, as noted by Wall Street Journal and The New York Times. Reynolds briefly mentions that the popularity of EDM has been facilitated by electronica being gradually incorporated into pop and hip-hop aired across the radio and TV mediascape. At a macroeconomic level, I wonder how the current global recession (along with the positive “Obama effect” afterglow) may have played a role. In his prior publications, Reynolds argues that the rise of house and techno back in the mid 1980s was a reaction to economic downturns of Thatcher and Reagan eras. Just like back then, current EDM events are about escapism, but a main difference lies in the lack of rebelliousness or questioning by participants today.

The EDM music being played in mainstream clubs and festivals in America is not "pure" electronica but rather strong fusions of pop and hip-hop in a big tune formula, often leading to undanceable (unbearable?) dubstep. Psy trance, deep house and tech house remain largely circumscribed to underground micro parties from San Francisco to Goa (and maybe that's a good thing). Teen sexiness - without any ironical undertone or twist - has emerged at full swing, suggesting that Millenials have succumbed to material consumerism. As Reynolds explains, the term "festival" has replaced "rave", a loaded taboo in America for it conjures hysterical images of drug overdoses and harassing sheriffs backed by draconian legislation. Party promoters thus avoid the word just like "that disease" was used in reference to cancer generations ago.

Underground critics have a point in noting that mega festivals are sterile, preformatted events regulated by vested economic interests. Not that drugs have disappeared. In fact, ecstasy has a new street name: "molly" (molecular) as new users claim that powder MDMA is more pure than pills. Beyond legality or health concerns, the point here is the lack of freedom or grassroots spontaneity in these EDM festivals. Techno counterculture was about creating a world that departs (and maybe transforms) the constraints and drudgery of modern life. Displays of fashion and flesh without the underlying playfulness or transgression intent of former times suggests that the scene has lost its critical edge, and is becoming more mainstream than ever. Within regulated structures of mega festivals, even Deadmau5 regrets that DJs may no longer be allowed to improvise tracks on the dancefloor, but are rather compelled to hit the 'play' button for a preset track list; a real sacrilege for any virtuoso DJs. The studio is thus becoming the site of creativity and experimentation; quite a departure from times when the dancefloor was an improvisational DJ lab.

The future is unknown. Currently the American EDM scene is an "unstable coalition" of dubstep (Skrillex) and feel-good trance (Kaskade), with the majority of DJ artists lying somewhere in between (Deadmau5). Twenty years from now, Simon Reynolds may use the same framework to understand the situation (from underground, to mainstream, to fragmentation). Though such festivals may provide some escapism, they do miss that grassroots questioning of "the system". Or worse, they just provide conformist, self-contained, pricey entertainment in commodity form. The genuine experience of self-transcendence and redemption is missed out: the Temporary Autonomous Zones (TAZ) that arises in quasi-sacred electronica rituals for a secular youth in search of spirituality and connectedness. Perhaps the title of Reynolds' article would better be "How America conquered rave music". Perhaps.

Sonar Festival: DJ Gig Auction on e-Bay

I received this today from Sonar PR Central. They are selling DJ gigs if you want to play at Sonar Festival in Barcelona. Gigs are being auctioned on e-Bay. We live in a capitalist society in which everything becomes commodity (unfortunately). In the spirit of PLUR, I think it would be revolutionary if raised funds were donated to charity or some noble cause. Some millionaire DJs would be motivated to pay even more to participate and help people. See below:

Sónar 2011 is up for auction with 2 extraordinary passes:

Introducing the DJ PASS... Is performing at Sónar your dream? Now you can achieve it with DJ PASS. This is a unique and unrepeatable offer enabling you to buy a 50-minute slot in the booth of the new SonarCar stage, at Sonar by Night (Barcelona) and perform in front of thousands of people. Prepare your set, visit ebay from Monday 2nd May onwards and start bidding. SonarCar is waiting for you.

Opening bid price: 1€
DJ PASS includes: 1 50-minute DJ set on the SonarCar stage on Friday 17th June at Sonar Barcelona + 1 festival accreditation.

...and Introducing the EGO PASS :: Buy your 20 seconds of glory! Do you have something to say to more than 15,000 people? All the screens on the SonarClub Stage on Friday 17th June at Sonar Galicia and Saturday 18th June at Sonar Barcelona can be yours for 20 seconds. Record your message and we will project it after the headlining concert. Visit ebay from Monday 9th May onwards and start bidding for your 20 seconds of glory.

Opening bid price: 1€
Sonar Galicia Ego Pass Auction for Friday 17th June from 9th May onwards.
Sonar Barcelona Ego Pass Auction for Saturday 18th June from 16th May onwards.
EGO PASS includes: projection of a 20-second video with your message after the headlining show on the SonarClub Stage + 1 accreditation for the festival.

*Offers only available to natural persons. Companies and brands may not participate.

Doc: ElectronicAwakening

Sorry for the silence, my friends. I've been too busy with other dimensions of my life, but here is some good news. My colleague Andrew Johner is about to release his new documentary on electronic dance music spirituality "ElectronicAwakening" and is raising some funds to put it on road of festivals and distribution.

He interviewed and video-taped me during his doc research in 2008 (yes, that's a while ago...). I haven't seen the full documentary yet, so I can only hope that my work and myself are featured in a nice light. :-)   I recall that Andrew's ideas centers on scatological beliefs about global transformation related to 2012 Maya Calendar. Will it happen? I don't know. Let's wait and see. In the meantime, you can sit back and enjoy the trailer of "ElectronicAwakening":

"Tron Legacy": Daft Punk's Digital Symphony

Daft Punk's amazing soundtrack for "Tron Legacy" at times resembles Avatar's lethargic soundscapes, but more so evokes "Dark Knight"'s psychological dramaticity. (I actually didn't know the French duo had co-produced "Tron Legacy" with Hans Zimmer, who greatly enjoys the Bethovian-style doorknocks we insistently listen in Batman sequel movies). I'll leave it to music critics and ethnomusicologists to extract genealogies of artists and sounds that make up the album universe, and will rather place some notes on social implications and multimedia connections.

One of my main concerns has been to assess to what extent electronica emerges/pops/arises onto the mainstream, via popular culture or media industry. Is "Tron Legacy" an example? Somewhat but not quite. Daft Punk arguably is one of the most well connected underground artists in terms of media/entertainment industry appearances (e.g., Sony cell phone, DJ Hero soundtracks, etc.). From their origins in 1990s French House, the duo Homem-Cristo and Bagalter does a great job in laying ambient electronic with orchestral symphonics arrangements for Tron Legacy, creating engaging digital soundscapes that is well suited to the movie's digital dreamlike sceneries.

However, don't expect any smashing sounds from the underground, but rather a softer version of ambient music occasionally peppered with hair-raising "acidy" sounds (I wonder if Roland 303s are still used at Disney high-end studios). In sum, this is no underground resistance music, but some interesting exercise (gym) for your mind, with a sentimental touch.

The movie? Well, this is Disney: child-oriented father-son drama; no blood (yet some robot busting), no sex (but some sexy chicks). It looks as though like an interesting view into digital imaginaries of the future, now.

"Eat Pray Love" and "Global Nomads"

The best-seller travelogue by Elizabeth Gilbert has a book precursor (actually many precursors), such as “Global Nomads” by Anthony D'Andrea (Routledge 2007). Both cover the same topic: educated and successful professionals who are existentially unhappy and decide to “drop out” (at least temporarily), traveling globally and experimenting in search of one’s own self.

In fact, there has been a spike in sales of “Global Nomads”, which can be explained by a few factors: a) the start of academic year in the U.S. and Europe (with the book being included in classroom reading lists), b) the gradual popularization of the book (as academic titles may take a few years to take off), and c) as an effect of  “Eat Pray Love” phenomenon played by Julia Roberts.

If you like “Eat Pray Love”, you will probably enjoy “Global Nomads”. As main differences, “Global Nomads” addresses a more marginal countercultural experience of lifestyle migration, connected to Gilbert’s story but more radical at times, as it depicts New Age spiritual practices and Techno rave experimentalism across Spain and India. A more sociological take on disaffected expatriates is another differential of “Global Nomads”, as this book is based on a PhD thesis in Anthropology at the University of Chicago, published by premier publisher Routledge in their premium series: International Library of Sociology (founded by Karl Manheim, currently directed by John Urry).

There are many travelogues out there, in erudite and pop versions, usually written by expatriates who decide to reminisce over their travel or diasporic experiences. There is also a growing literature analyzing such travelogues from a more academic perspective, including topics such as imperial travel, lifestyle migration, global trekking, global wellness resorts, etc. But “Global Nomads” is well connected with “Eat Pray Love” for they share a contemporary concern with modern dilemmas of a troubled, affluent individualism.

"Global Nomads" can be found at Amazon, Routledge, or any other good online book store, in affordable paperback, durable hardback, or in digital edition for Kindle/Ipad e-readers. Enjoy!