Strategic Thinking Under Chaotic Conditions: the “General’s Glance” Beyond Analysis and Intuition

Napoleon at Wagram by Horace Vernet

As I finished writing this post, McKinsey & Co. republished a classic interview on the role of intuition in corporate decision making. It was surprising to see a bastion of linear analytical thinking interested in such an elusive topic. Also amusing was to see the guest interviewees, a psychologist and an economist, disagreeing on almost every aspect of intuition (McKinsey). But why is intuition any relevant to strategic thinking?

Bad decisions are not something military, emergency and business leaders can often make. Yet, given the pressures and uncertainties in which they operate, experienced professionals show a remarkable success rate. In trying to identify the causes of success under chaos, new research in neuroscience and battlefield performance are discovering mental processes that defy conventional training models prevalent in business and war schools.

In the conventional model, analysis and intuition are seen as mutually exclusive yet complementary capabilities, as each is activated in different phases of the project cycle. First, based on long-term goals, you define hypotheses sustaining alternative scenarios, and based on comparative estimates, you select the optimal course of action. Only then intuition may apply: a gut check that prompts you to creatively adapt midair when things don’t “feel” right. Strategy is analytical, execution is intuitive. This approach works well in organizational contexts in which you need to justify your decisions against clear objectives; or in situations where political conflict arises over distinct choices.

However, new psychological studies suggest that expert decision making in chaotic situations actually follows a different template. Experienced professionals seem to combine analysis and intuition from the outset, and, although spiking in different phases, analysis and intuition are always informing and influencing each other throughout the problem solving process (Klein, Gordon, Duggan). In dramatic situations, this is manifested as the piercing insight that comes from observing terrain hotspots and pitfalls: the officer who turns a losing battle, the firefighter who escapes the burning inferno, the nurse who saves lives in overwhelming conditions, the entrepreneur who rapidly pivots the startup from certain market failure.

This ability has been a longtime interest in the military. War situations explicitly reveal this “battlefield intuition”, as the uncanny ability to make right decisions under highly adverse circumstances. One of the most successful generals in history, Napoleon Bonaparte was remarkable in this trait (Ridgley). As he describes his experience of winning battles:

The issue of a battle is the result of an instant, of a thought. There is the advance, with its various combinations… The battle is joined, the struggle goes on for a certain time… Then, the decisive moment presents itself, a spark of genius discloses it, and the smallest body of reserves accomplish victory!

His exceptional ability was carefully examined by his nemesis, Prussian strategist and general Carl Von Clausewitz. Just like business planning and execution often fail, he noted that massive army resources, extensive planning, and technical excellence were not enough to secure victory. “Friction” is the result of uncertainty, chance and probability upsetting expected outcomes. But Napoleon regularly beat the odds. Clausewitz termed this coup d’oeil, the insightful glance, or the general’s glance. It is the flash of insight as a sudden ability to see what needs to be done despite uncertainties all around. It results from a sharp focus on means and ends of action, drawing from the individual’s knowledge, experience and observation immediately.

Neuroscience tries to explain this uncanny ability as a type of intelligent memory (Gordon, Klein). From interviews with experts from various occupations, this intuition is neither based on gut instinct (ordinary intuition) nor on muscle memory (expert intuition), nor on any extra-sensory power (Time, Young). Decision makers were making rapid connections between a critical situation in which they were caught in, and their prior experience stored in their deepest memories (not only one's own personal memories but also the learnings we absorb from other many experts).

The selective recombination of past references into future projections is a key trait of such “strategic intuition” (Duggan). Usually faster than pure analysis, strategic intuition works well in unfamiliar situations and amid competing courses of action. As newly predicted outcomes may not fit previous goals, the decision maker must follow through, and work out the details along the way. The combination of analysis and intuition becomes a work of creative insight, as the ability to recombine pieces of information leads to greater understanding and enables new behaviors and responses.

In seeking to develop the “insightful glance” or “strategic intuition”, we must refrain from seeing strategy as purely analytical. We must recognize that intuition plays a role in strategic thinking from the outset. This realization may help analysts to more adeptly anticipate reactions to unforeseen conditions, thus honing a state of readiness and potential initiative. This requires that advisers be more supple in incorporating this pragmatic mindset into their occupational ethos.

In sum, skilled decision makers do not generate multiple options, nor do they develop plans from scratch. Instead, they work from the perception of a specific goal being reachable. They use accumulated expertise to read situations, create possible solutions, and timely act. As they study the situation in search of patterns, problem and solution are visualized at the same time. In the general’s glance, analysis and intuition happen simultaneously, and likewise so do problem and solution.


References

Clausewitz, Carl von. 1832. On War.

Duggan, William. 2005. Coup D'Oeil: Strategic Intuition in Army Planning

Gordon, Barry. 2003. Intelligent Memory

Klein, Gary. 1998. Source of Power: How People Make Decisions

Klein, Gary. 2009. Streetlights and Shadows: Searching for the Keys to Adaptive Decision Making

McKinsey & Company. 2010. Strategic Decisions: When can you trust your gut?

Napoleon, Bonaparte. 1916. In His Own Words

Ridgley, Stanley 2012. Strategic Thinking Skills

Time. 2017. U.S. Military Believes Humans Have a Sixth Sense Intuition

Young, Leon (Australian Army). Battlefield Intuition: It’s not a mystery

What I Learned at Stanford: 3 Unexpected Lessons about Silicon Valley

Stanford University campus, 2018

Studying at Stanford business school (GSB) over 2017-2018 was a transformative experience. In our cohort, we honed our vision and skills in strategy, innovation and leadership with world-class MBA faculty. Because this was an executive program, we had to apply coursework lessons in the workplace, turned into a lab sometimes uncomfortably so. In true Californian spirit, we were encouraged to question our assumptions about career, business and culture in quite challenging ways. Given my background as an anthropologist, I embraced this experiential approach. In the process, I draw a few insights from unexpected situations during my brief yet immersive time at Silicon Valley.

1. Tech giants don't look so giant

I couldn't help but notice how ordinary and flawed daily life in major tech companies of Silicon Valley can be. I'm not referring to current controversies around big data, surveillance or diversity, but to the fact that, even in the most coveted of cutting-edge spaces, PowerPoint still failed, doors creaked, and people said unremarkable things. When looked at more closely, tech giants didn't look as giant anymore. Underneath their massive scale, they felt somewhat fragile. As Gladwell noted in his David-and-Goliath study, nimble underdogs often overcome dreaded juggernauts. Something to think about.

2. Exciting careers are often random

As I interacted with well-positioned professionals in venture capital, they told me about how they had stumbled more or less haphazardly into their positions. Rather than careful career planning and powerful connections, they had found out about available jobs they then applied for. Of course, they leveraged network connections and superior education, but did not seem to be benefiting from rampant class privilege. Instead, they were dedicated individuals who seized on some interesting opportunity they more or less enjoy. Career vision and assertiveness are needed for professional growth, but much of what you see about charismatic tech evangelists on the news is just plain PR.

 3. Tremendous goodwill to improve the world

Students in elite tech hubs are often depicted as selfish or naive individuals inadvertently engendering Black Mirror scenarios. However, my experience at Stanford was different. I was impressed with the willingness of students, employees and professionals to do good for society at large. They spent time and effort developing pro-bono solutions to social problems (poverty, health, environment, loneliness, etc.). There are structural limits to individual altruism, but as Mark Twain suggested: “they did not know it was impossible, so they did it.” The excitement and optimism I saw at Stanford was remarkable, even contagious.


Empowerment through Realism and Imagination

Underlying these various experiences at the mecca of tech is a lesson of human empowerment. It goes along the excellent business training I got at Stanford, to realize that snafus and accidents happen to exceptional companies and individuals as they go about their projects. We all put our pants on the same way, regardless of where you are. Most of us underestimate our potential to produce meaningful action. Even as agency is probably easier from a position of privilege, it is heartwarming to see that generous goodwill still flourishes in places where personal gain may easily lie elsewhere. Disruption wouldn't be disruptive if it were easily predictable. That's how established giants get blindsided and fall.